New Jersey's political landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation, and the implications of these changes are far-reaching. The 2024 presidential election saw an unexpected surge in support for President Donald Trump among non-white voters in the New York City metro area, particularly in towns like Paterson, Perth Amboy, and Passaic. This shift has set the stage for an intense gubernatorial race in 2025 and raises crucial questions about the future of these communities in upcoming elections.
But here's where it gets controversial: Can Republicans maintain this diverse coalition in the long term? An in-depth analysis of New Jersey's municipal election results, coupled with census data, provides a unique demographic and geographic perspective on the rapid growth of support for both Democrats and Republicans.
By comparing changes since 2012, the most recent presidential election without Trump, we can clearly see the evolving party coalitions. Trump's support has skyrocketed in densely populated, formerly industrial cities with significant non-white populations. Meanwhile, Democratic candidates have gained traction in New Jersey's affluent shore towns, suburbs populated by highly educated professionals, and retirement communities.
These communities will serve as crucial test cases, determining whether this 12-year political realignment can endure beyond Trump's presidency.
However, the picture is far from simple. Different political figures often attract varying results, as seen in Republican Jack Ciattarelli's 2021 gubernatorial bid, which had a different coalition makeup compared to Trump's 2024 campaign.
The key question heading into future elections is whether these shifts represent a lasting transformation of state and national politics or are merely a Trump-specific phenomenon. These towns and cities provide a unique testing ground for this debate.
The Shifting Sands of Support: Democrats' Gains
Since 2012:
Mantoloking, a nearly all-residential beach town with a population of 331, located just south of the final stop on the NJ Transit Jersey Shore train line, has seen significant shifts. More than half of its residents work in finance or management, and the population working from home is well above the state average (45% vs. 13% statewide). The mean household income is an impressive $484,326, and the average sale price of homes in 2024 was a staggering $4.8 million.
While still predominantly Republican, the town exemplifies the changing dynamics among wealthier and more educated voters.
Short Hills:
This location is renowned for its upscale shopping center, The Mall at Short Hills, which opened in 1961 with the tagline "5th Avenue in the Suburbs." The area has lived up to its billing, with a mean household income of $512,637, the second-highest in the state. Among residents aged 25 and older, an impressive 60% hold advanced degrees, the highest share for any community of its size in New Jersey. Asian residents make up 38% of the population, with half being Indian American.
Since 2016:
Cape May Point, a small beach town at the southern tip of the Jersey peninsula, has a predominantly older population, with a median age of 70.9. Home values are among the top 10 in South Jersey, at $1.4 million. Nearly all shops and dining are located in nearby Cape May city, a 10-minute drive away.
Frenchtown:
Located on the banks of the Delaware River, Frenchtown is a charming river town and popular day trip destination known for its art galleries and boutiques. The Delaware and Raritan Canal trail, starting just north of town, is a favorite among pedestrians and cyclists. Frenchtown has a unique concentration of residents involved in arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations, with one in ten residents in these fields (second-highest in the state). Among adult residents, 41% are white with college degrees or higher, above the state average of 27%.
Since 2020:
Avalon, a long-standing affluent shore town, now has the state's fifth-oldest population, with a median age of 74.1. The average sale price of a home in Avalon in 2024 was $2.8 million. Leisuretowne, a retirement community in South Jersey, was actively developed from 1971 to 1986 and now has 2,255 homes, with a current median age of 72.5.
The Republican Resurgence: Shifts Towards the GOP
Since 2012:
East Newark, a largely industrial neighborhood beneath the Gov. Alfred E. Driscoll Bridge, has seen significant growth in its Latino population, increasing from 38% in 2000 to 71% in 2020. The mean household income is $91,696, below the statewide figure of $140,299. A brand-new waterfront park opened this year, a major step in revitalizing this industrial area in Newark's shadow.
Two-thirds of East Newark's population is Hispanic/Latino, with majorities not holding U.S. citizenship and speaking Spanish at home. It has the largest Peruvian population and fifth-largest Ecuadorian population by share in the U.S.
Since 2016:
Passaic, home to the state's sixth-largest Latino population, has 73% of its 70,000 residents identifying as Hispanic or Latino. It also boasts the largest Mexican population in New Jersey. The town is firmly working-class, with 33% of its adult population not having graduated high school, compared to 9% statewide.
Heading south from downtown Passaic, you'll find a large Orthodox Jewish population. While official numbers are not available at the municipal level, Passaic likely has one of the top populations of Orthodox Jews in New Jersey. The Brook Haven Mall, billed as the "largest kosher shopping mall in the U.S.," opened in 2021, a testament to the size of the Jewish population in the area.
Elizabeth, New Jersey's fourth-largest city, is a major transit hub for the New York metropolitan area. It hosts parts of Newark Liberty International Airport and the Port Newark-Elizabeth Marine Terminal, one of the world's busiest container ports. Like East Newark, more than half of Elizabeth's population was not born in the U.S., and nearly two-thirds are Spanish speakers.
Since 2020:
Perth Amboy, once a hub for East Coast terra-cotta production at the turn of the 19th century, is now 81% Latino, the third-highest share in the state. Half of its Latino population is of Dominican origin, one of the highest concentrations in the country. Paterson, New Jersey's third-largest city, is a melting pot with the largest Dominican population outside New York City and Lawrence, Massachusetts. Its Little Lima neighborhood has the largest Peruvian population outside of Peru, and the mayor has declared Paterson the U.S. "capital of Palestine" due to its large Palestinian population. The city's Muslim population likely accounts for at least a third of its makeup.
However, Paterson is also a city in transition, with a quarter of its population living in poverty and some of the highest crime rates in the state on a per capita basis.
Conclusion:
The political landscape of New Jersey is in flux, and these shifts will have a significant impact on future elections. The question remains: Are these changes a lasting transformation or a Trump-specific phenomenon? These communities will provide the answers, and the results will shape the political future of the state and potentially the nation.
